Siêu trị gầu, không còn dấu hiệu của tóc
August 3rd, 2008 by allezaubut
Thị trường down quá, VNI ra đứng đường cũng không đắt khách nên chuyển sang bán dầu gội đầu P&G: Head and Shoulders. Theo như hướng dẫn sử dụng thì:
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Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter). Đã xong.
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Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact. Đã xong.
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Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy. Đã xong.
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Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline. Đang chờ xem có xuống nốt không.
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Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern’s degree of bearishness: a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline. Đã kẻ xong.
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Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
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Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume. Tối quan trọng.
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Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.
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Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
Như vậy muốn mở ổ khóa cần 2 key: Volume và Breakout.
- Breakout: không có cách nào khác là chờ đợi.
- Volume: dường như đang không đi đúng hướng, là 1 nguy cơ để partern không được hoàn thành. Tuy nhiên, cần lưu ý đến tính chất của TTCK Việt Nam: không phải muốn mua, muốn bán lúc nào cũng được. Vì vậy, tính quan trọng của Volume tại đây bị giảm bớt.
Nếu khóa được mở, chốt được bung thì target đầu tiên cần chú ý là khoảng đâu đó 365, tức là đáy của ngày 20/6/2008.
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August 18th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Thị trường đảo chiều kinh thật, lên MB mới thấy ‘cò’ ngồi đông thế nào, thế mà có người không bình loạn gì nhỉ. Hay là mải mê nhảy sóng quên hết cả blog rồi!